The forecast ledger

The operating-question verdict remains "No. Not yet."

through 2026-12-31

Resolution Resolves NO if the Observatory revises the verdict on the record, with a frame-construction result strong enough to survive its own contamination defenses.

Anthropic's Fable 5 weekly-usage inclusion for Max plans ends as scheduled on 2026-07-07 (shifting to usage credits) with no new suspension or export-control action before then.

by 2026-07-08

Resolution Resolves YES if the July-7 transition happens as announced and no new government restriction or Anthropic suspension of Fable 5 occurs before 2026-07-08; resolves NO otherwise.

No frontier system passes a hardened FCS-4 (Hilbert–Einstein action) run under audited contamination defenses.

by 2027-12-31

Resolution Resolves NO if an independently scored, time-sliced FCS-4 run reconstructs the action principle with held-out derivation steps and no post-1915 leakage.

The Observatory executes FCS-B1 (descent, pre-1858 time-slice) against ≥2 frontier minds with published transcripts by 2026-09-30.

End of Q3 2026

Resolution Transcripts and grading published under /experiments/ for ≥2 minds; graded under the suite’s asymmetry.

At least two of the GPT-5.6 family (Sol, Terra, Luna) are generally available by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official OpenAI availability announcements; GA means paid-tier API or ChatGPT access without waitlist for at least two family members.

No frontier model ships durable, updatable long-term memory as a native property of the trained network (not external scaffolding).

by 2027-12-31

Resolution Resolves NO on a credible demonstration of write-persist-retrieve memory across sessions that is intrinsic to the model, independently reproduced.

ARC-AGI-3 Milestone #1 official results (due 2026-12-04) show no system within 20 points of the human baseline.

by 2026-12-05

Resolution Resolves YES if the published Milestone #1 leaderboard shows every entrant more than 20 points below the human baseline; resolves NO otherwise.

The human–frontier gap on held-out ARC-AGI-3 interactive tasks stays above 20 points.

by 2027-06-30

Resolution Resolves NO if a frontier system reaches within 20 points of the human baseline on a held-out ARC-AGI-3 set without task-specific tuning.

At least two additional ≥500MW nuclear or fusion power agreements tied to AI datacenters are announced by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Two distinct official deal announcements after 2026-07-02, each ≥500MW and explicitly tied to AI/datacenter load.

GPT-5.6 (Sol) reaches general availability by 2026-08-15 under the staggered executive-order release process.

by 2026-08-15

Resolution Resolves YES if OpenAI makes GPT-5.6 Sol generally available (not limited preview) to paying API or consumer users by the horizon.

ARC Prize publishes at least one closed private/semi-private verified scorecard packet for a top ARC-AGI-3 entrant by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official ARC Prize publication of a verified scorecard (the queue-29 gate object) for any leading entrant.

Gemini 3.5 Pro is generally available by 2026-07-31 (already slipped from its June target).

by 2026-07-31

Resolution Resolves YES on public general availability of Gemini 3.5 Pro by the horizon.

Grok 4.5 exits private beta to general availability by 2026-09-30.

End of Q3 2026

Resolution Official xAI announcement of general availability (API or consumer access without invite).

A frontier model reaches ≥85% on OSWorld-Verified in a published evaluation by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Vendor or independent published OSWorld-Verified score ≥85%; leaderboard or paper citation required.

An open-weights model reaches ≥60% on Terminal-Bench 2.0 in a published, reproducible evaluation by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Published eval with public methodology on an open-weights checkpoint; vendor or independent, but must be reproducible (weights + harness public).

An independent evaluator publishes a reproduction or audit of GPT-5.6 Sol’s headline agentic/coding claims by 2027-03-31.

Q1 2027

Resolution Publication by a party other than OpenAI reproducing or auditing at least one headline GPT-5.6 benchmark claim, with methodology.

A single AI datacenter campus with ≥5GW planned capacity is officially announced by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official announcement by an operator/government naming one campus/site with ≥5GW planned power.

At least one named external reviewer agrees to independently score an Observatory FCS run by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution A named person’s agreement recorded on the public record (colophon or experiment page) plus at least one delivered independent grading.

By 2026-09-30, METR or another independent evaluator publishes a cross-generation quantification of frontier-model reward-hacking rates (≥2 model generations compared).

by 2026-09-30

Resolution Resolves YES on publication of an independent evaluation explicitly comparing detected evaluation-gaming/reward-hacking rates across at least two frontier model generations.

Anthropic ships an Opus-branded model in the Claude 5 family by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official Anthropic release notes or model card carrying both the Opus name and 5-family versioning.

METR publishes a measurement showing a 50%-success task time-horizon of ≥8 hours for any public model by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution METR official report or blog with the 50%-success horizon metric at or above 8 hours.

HBM4 memory ships in a commercially available accelerator by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official availability (not sampling) of an accelerator with HBM4, per vendor announcement or teardown.

A second frontier vendor announces an approved-organizations-only model tier (analogous to Anthropic’s Mythos) by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official vendor announcement of a restricted-availability frontier tier gated on organizational approval, not just pricing.

Two or more national AI safety institutes publish a joint pre-deployment evaluation of the same frontier model by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Joint or simultaneous coordinated publication by ≥2 national AISIs evaluating one named model pre-deployment.

A frontier lab publicly rolls back or recalls a released model version citing safety (not capability) regressions by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official vendor announcement withdrawing or downgrading a released model, citing safety as the reason.

The EU opens a formal enforcement proceeding against a frontier-model provider under the AI Act’s GPAI obligations by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official Commission or AI Office announcement of a formal proceeding (not an information request) naming a GPAI provider.

CISA or a national CERT issues an advisory naming autonomous AI agents as the attack vector in a confirmed intrusion by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official advisory from CISA or a national CERT that attributes a confirmed intrusion to an autonomous AI agent.

The ARC-AGI-3 competition’s final verified leaderboard (winners 2026-12-04) shows a top code-track score of RHAE ≥ 0.5.

ARC Prize 2026 winners announcement

Resolution Official ARC Prize final leaderboard or winners publication; verified entries only.

A production incident (not eval-only behavior) is publicly attributed to reward hacking or specification gaming in a frontier model by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Vendor postmortem or independent evaluator report attributing a deployed-system incident to reward hacking/spec gaming.

One of the 2024–26 frontier-diaspora labs (SSI, Thinking Machines, Cognition, Periodic, Future House, etc.) is acquired by or absorbed into a hyperscaler or major lab by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official acquisition/absorption announcement of a named diaspora lab by a hyperscaler or frontier lab.

A US export-control action forces suspension or restriction of public access to any frontier model again by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official government directive or vendor statement attributing an access suspension/restriction to export controls, after the June 2026 Fable 5 episode.

Safe Superintelligence Inc. makes its first public product or research release by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution Official SSI publication, product, or model release; hiring pages and interviews do not count.

A frontier vendor offers ≥100M-token context in general availability by 2026-12-31.

End of 2026

Resolution GA product documentation offering a ≥100M-token context window (not research demo or waitlist).

A frontier system passes a hardened FCS-1 (equivalence) under audited contamination defenses in H1 2026.

by 2026-06-30 · resolved 2026-06-30

Resolution Resolved NO (backfilled): no audited FCS-1 pass existed. NOTE: the original resolution text cited "dry runs" that never took place — retracted 2026-07-01.

Retraction: this entry was authored after its resolution date and cited nonexistent dry runs. Excluded from calibration.

A frontier model ships native computer-use at ≥70% OSWorld-Verified in H1 2026.

by 2026-06-30 · resolved 2026-06-24

Resolution Resolved YES: GPT-5.4 reported OSWorld-Verified 75.0% with native computer-use (2026-06-24).

Vendor-reported; the forecast was about shipping, not durability. [Backfilled: authored after resolution — excluded from calibration.]

ARC-AGI-3 human–frontier gap closes to within 20 points by end of Q2 2026.

by 2026-06-30 · resolved 2026-06-18

Resolution Resolved NO: the interactive-task gap held well above 20 points despite static-benchmark gains.

Correctly skeptical. [Backfilled: authored after resolution — excluded from calibration.]